Refrax Quantum shows how this module attaches to one Passport record.
Estimate whether the project can survive the next cycle.
The Survival Forecast turns liquidity, treasury, holders, volume, contract risk, ownership risk, socials, and vesting into a durability estimate.
Outputs feed the public trust page, credit report, O Badge review, and founder checklist.
No isolated tools. Every workflow writes back to the Organism Passport.
Measure durability drivers
Forecasting starts with lock duration, liquidity depth, treasury size, holder distribution, volume consistency, and trust infrastructure.
LiquidityTreasuryHoldersVolume
Explain the forecast
The forecast should show what pulls survival up or down, not just a single percentage.
Unlock riskTreasury drainOwner riskSocial gaps
Turn forecast into a fix list
Mission Control and AI Advisor use forecast drivers to recommend practical founder actions.
Extend lockAdd treasuryVerify sourceComplete socials
Evidence
Liquidity depth, lock duration, treasury, holders, volume, contract risk, ownership risk, social completeness, and vesting.
Scenarios
Base case, stress case, and growth case durability estimates.
Output
Forecast score, risk drivers, and founder fix list.
Actions
Survival Forecast action queue
These actions are the workflow contract for the page, Mission Control, and future APIs.
Forecast Window
3-month, 6-month, 12-month, 18-month
Scenario
Base case, stress case, growth case
Output
Durability score, risk drivers, founder fix list
Action Console
Survival Forecast workflow
Select an action, set the module options, attach evidence, and send it into the Trust OS action contract.
Ready
Founder Command Checklist
What this module helps complete.
This checklist is the practical path from project setup to public investor trust.
01Liquidity depth
02Locked liquidity duration
03Treasury size
04Holder distribution
05Volume consistency
06Contract risk
07Ownership risk
08Social completeness
09Vesting risk